The 10 year treasury mortgage rate spread stood at 1.97 percentage points on June 23, 2026, as the 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.47% while the 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.5%.
As of June 23, 2026, the 10 year treasury mortgage rate spread measured 1.97 percentage points. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.47% while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield sat at 4.5%, according to FRED data. This positive spread reflects the structural difference between mortgage pricing and government borrowing costs that has persisted through 2026.
The 10 year treasury mortgage rate spread remained positive throughout the first half of 2026. Mortgage rates exceeded Treasury yields even as both benchmarks moved lower from earlier peaks. Matthew Gardner noted in his 2026 forecast that mortgage rates could decline without a matching drop in Treasury yields, a divergence that has materialized in the data.
In February 2026, the average 30-year primary fixed mortgage rate was just above 6%, down nine basis points from January. MCT’s Base Mortgage Rate fell from 6.10% to 6.01% over the same period. By late March, however, rates reversed course with an 11-basis-point weekly surge tied to rising energy prices and persistent inflation.
Mortgage rates incorporate credit risk, servicing costs, and liquidity premiums that Treasury securities do not carry. The coupon spread quantifies how much more borrowers pay relative to what they would pay if they could issue debt on the same terms as the U.S. government. StreetStats data confirm that this structural gap has remained stable even as absolute rate levels have fluctuated.
Rate sheets in major markets showed modest variation around the national average. In the Atlanta metro, conforming 30-year fixed quotes averaged 6.51% on June 23. The Chicago market printed 6.44%, while the Dallas-Fort Worth area came in at 6.49%. These differences largely reflect local originator competition and servicing costs rather than changes in the underlying 10 year treasury mortgage rate spread.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to support energy prices and contributed to sticky inflation readings. The Federal Reserve’s June 18 policy statement left the federal-funds target range unchanged at 4.25–4.50%, keeping Treasury yields anchored near current levels. Mortgage originators responded by maintaining wider spreads to cover hedging costs and expected servicing expenses.
| Metric | Rate / Yield | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed Mortgage | 6.47% | FRED |
| 10-Year Treasury | 4.50% | FRED |
| 10 Year Treasury Mortgage Rate Spread | 1.97 pp | Calculated |
| 15-Year Fixed Mortgage | N/A | FRED |
A 1.97-percentage-point spread means that for every $100,000 borrowed, monthly principal-and-interest payments are roughly $110 higher than they would be if mortgage rates tracked the 10-year Treasury exactly. Homebuyers evaluating affordability can run live scenarios at HomeRates.ai to see how changes in the 10 year treasury mortgage rate spread affect qualification and payment.
The 10 year treasury mortgage rate spread remains near 2 percentage points, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.47% and the 10-year Treasury at 4.5% as of June 23, 2026. This gap is expected to stay elevated until either Treasury yields rise meaningfully or mortgage spreads compress through improved liquidity and lower hedging costs.
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