Pending home sales 2026 data show June contracts down 5.4% while NAR forecasts a 14% rebound in existing-home sales for the full year.
As of 13 August 2026, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits at 6.67% and the 15-year at 5.96%, according to FRED. The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.63%, producing a 204-basis-point spread that keeps financing costs elevated and continues to constrain contract formation.
The Pending Home Sales Index, scheduled for release 18 August 2026, is expected to confirm a 5.4% month-over-month decline for June. February 2026 had posted a modest 1.8% sequential gain, but the subsequent three months reversed that uptick, leaving year-to-date contract volume 0.8% below the same period in 2025.
Existing-home sales for June 2026 clocked 4.09 million units annualized, up 3.2% both month-over-month and year-over-year. The median sales price reached $440,600, and inventory measured 4.6 months of supply. NAR’s latest forecast calls for a 14% increase in existing-home sales for calendar 2026, predicated on modest inventory growth and eventual rate relief.
| Region | Feb 2026 MoM | Feb 2026 YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Northeast | +2.1% | –0.4% |
| Midwest | +1.4% | –1.1% |
| South | +2.3% | +0.3% |
| West | +0.9% | –2.7% |
The South remains the only region with positive year-over-year contract growth, supported by net in-migration and relatively elastic supply.
A 5.4% June drop in pending sales, paired with still-elevated mortgage rates, suggests buyer demand remains price-sensitive. NAR’s 14% full-year sales projection therefore hinges on two variables: further inventory gains and any sustained decline in the 30-year fixed rate below 6.5%. Absent those conditions, the 2026 sales forecast may prove optimistic.
Pending home sales 2026 continue to reflect affordability constraints. Readers can run live scenarios at HomeRates.ai to model how incremental rate movements would translate into monthly payment changes and affordability thresholds for their target markets.
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