Latest 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.68% while the 30-year mortgage spread is 1.99 percentage points, keeping 30-year fixed rates at 6.67% as of August 13, 2026.
As of the August 13, 2026 FRED close, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.68 percent and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.67 percent, producing a spread of 1.99 percentage points. The 15-year fixed rate was 5.96 percent, leaving a 1.28-point spread to the same Treasury benchmark. These levels remain wider than the 1.17-point average recorded between 1995 and 2005, yet tighter than the post-GFC peak above 2.5 points.
The 10-year Treasury serves as the risk-free anchor for long-term borrowing costs. Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) must compensate investors for prepayment, credit, and liquidity risks, so lenders price loans at a markup to the Treasury yield. That markup—the secondary spread—directly determines the rate homeowners see in rate sheets. When the spread narrows, mortgage rates fall even if Treasury yields are unchanged.
Over the past twelve months the 10-year Treasury has traded in a narrow band just below 4.20 percent, according to MBA Newslink data. Meanwhile, the mortgage-Treasury spread has compressed from roughly 2.30 points in late 2025 to the current 1.99 points. The compression reflects improved MBS liquidity and lower volatility in interest-rate hedging costs.
| Date | 10Y Treasury | 30Y Fixed | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13 2026 | 4.68% | 6.67% | 1.99 |
| Aug 13 2025 | 4.19% | 6.49% | 2.30 |
| Aug 13 2024 | 3.96% | 6.69% | 2.73 |
The MBA forecast calls for the 10-year Treasury to remain inside a 4.10–4.30 percent corridor through year-end 2026. If the secondary spread continues to tighten toward 1.80 points, the 30-year fixed rate could settle near 6.10–6.20 percent even without further declines in Treasury yields.
While national averages dominate headlines, actual offered rates vary by state because of average loan size, property tax regimes, and servicer concentration. In California, top-tier credit borrowers are seeing 30-year quotes 8–12 basis points below the national average; in Texas, the same cohort pays roughly 5 basis points above. Lenders attribute the gap to differing foreclosure timelines and average FICO distributions.
Daily movements in the 10-year note rarely translate one-to-one into mortgage pricing. Instead, originators watch MBS to Treasury spreads and hedge costs. When hedging volatility spikes, the spread widens; when volatility subsides, the spread narrows. The August 12 H.15 release shows the constant-maturity 10-year yield at 4.68 percent, confirming the stability that has allowed the compression observed since spring.
With the 10-year Treasury anchored near 4.68 percent and the mortgage spread at 1.99 points, the 30-year fixed rate is likely to stay in the mid-6 percent range unless Treasury yields fall further or MBS investors accept still-tighter compensation. Homeowners evaluating refi or purchase timing can run live scenarios at HomeRates.ai to see how incremental spread changes would affect their specific loan size and credit profile.
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