Refinance rates 2026 remain elevated at 7.18% for the 30-year fixed; see the latest MBA data and what it means for locking in before the next move.
As of the FRED close on November 5, 2026, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits at 7.18 percent and the 15-year fixed at 6.57 percent. The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.84 percent, producing a 2.34-percentage-point spread. These levels remain the highest in three years, keeping the refinance share of applications near 39 percent.
The Mortgage Bankers Association reports that mortgage applications fell 6 percent for the week ending September 25, 2026, with refinance volume down 9 percent and purchase activity down 4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis. The MBA Mortgage Market Index declined to 188.60 points in October from 199.20 the prior month, while the Refinance Index slipped to 503.10 from 513.50. Average loan size edged higher to $374,720.
| Metric | Latest | Prior Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-yr Fixed Rate | 7.18% | 7.30% | FRED 11/5/26 |
| MBA Market Index | 188.60 | 199.20 | MBA Oct 2026 |
| Refinance Share | 39.3% | 39.4% | MBA Oct 2026 |
| Applications WoW | –5.3% | — | MBA 10/16/26 |
States with the largest refinance share in the latest MBA sample include California (43 percent of applications), Texas (41 percent), and Florida (40 percent). In contrast, Midwest states such as Ohio and Michigan continue to show refinance shares below 35 percent, reflecting slower home-price appreciation and lower equity build-up.
Borrowers evaluating whether to lock before rates move must weigh the 2.34-point spread against the 10-year Treasury. Historical data show that when the spread compresses below 2.0 points, 30-year rates typically follow the Treasury lower within 30–45 days. Conversely, a widening spread—driven by credit-risk repricing—has preceded rate increases of 15–25 basis points within the same window.
Running live scenarios at HomeRates.ai allows users to model breakeven points for a rate-and-term refinance versus waiting for a potential 25-basis-point dip. Inputs include current FICO, loan-to-value, and state-level mortgage insurance thresholds, producing an exact monthly savings figure and payback period.
With the 30-year fixed at 7.18 percent and refinance activity still below 40 percent of total applications, borrowers who can document a 50-basis-point improvement over their existing note rate should consider locking now. Waiting for a meaningful decline requires either a compression in the Treasury spread or a sustained drop in the 10-year yield below 4.60 percent—neither of which is yet visible in the data.
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