Housing inventory 2026 is up nearly 20% nationally; Davidson County, TN shows 6+ months supply while Travis County, TX tightens to 4.9—latest Redfin data and 7.18% 30-year rates.
Nationwide, for-sale housing inventory has climbed almost 20 percent compared with the same period last year. The largest gains in affordable listings have appeared in the middle- and upper-middle-income segments, particularly for households earning between $75,000 and $100,000. These additional homes are beginning to ease the competition buyers faced in 2024 and 2025.
As of the November 5, 2025 FRED release, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 7.18 percent, the 15-year fixed at 6.57 percent, and the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.84 percent—producing a 2.34 percent spread. Elevated rates continue to suppress transaction volume, yet the expanding supply is giving well-qualified buyers more negotiating leverage.
Redfin data for Davidson County, TN illustrate how quickly conditions can shift. In June 2026 the county posted 5.2 months of supply, already inside buyer-market territory. By August the figure had risen above 6 months, new listings jumped 23.5 percent, and the median sale price fell 4.2 percent to $468,432. Homes spent a median of 62 days on market, and only 15 percent closed above list.
Travis County, TX moved in the opposite direction. June 2026 saw months of supply drop to 4.9, while home sales surged 16 percent and pending sales rose 19 percent—both well ahead of the national 4 percent pace. Stable prices and improving inventory attracted buyers who had been sidelined earlier in the year.
The national 20 percent inventory gain has not been uniform across price tiers. Redfin analysis shows the strongest growth in listings priced for households earning $75,000–$100,000. This segment now offers the greatest improvement in affordable choices, while lower-income brackets remain tighter.
| Market | Months Supply | YoY Inventory Change | Median Price (latest) | Sales YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davidson County, TN | 6.0+ | +9 % | $468,432 | — |
| Travis County, TX | 4.9 | — | Stable | +16 % |
| United States | — | +20 % | — | +4 % |
Months of supply below 4 generally favor sellers; 4–6 months is considered balanced; above 6 months favors buyers. Davidson County’s move past the 6-month threshold, paired with falling prices and rising days on market, signals a clear shift in negotiating power. Travis County’s sub-5-month reading suggests sellers still hold a modest edge, but the gap is narrowing.
Housing inventory 2026 is expanding fastest where middle-income buyers need it most, yet mortgage rates remain elevated at 7.18 percent. Shoppers who run live scenarios at HomeRates.ai can model how today’s rates and local supply trends translate into monthly payments and offer strategies.
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