Fed holds rates steady in November 2026, leaving 30-year mortgages at 7.18% and the 10-year Treasury at 4.9%—what this means for homebuyers.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal-funds target range unchanged at its November 2026 meeting, aligning with market expectations. That decision kept the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.18% and the 15-year fixed at 6.57% as of the November 5 FRED close, while the 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.9%—producing a 2.28-point spread between the benchmark note and the 30-year mortgage.
Mortgage rates are not set by the Fed directly; they follow the path of the 10-year Treasury plus a credit-spread premium. With the Fed on hold, the 10-year yield has remained anchored near 4.9%, limiting downward pressure on mortgages. According to NerdWallet, the projected median prime rate for 2026 is 7.10%, reflecting the current plateau.
A 0.5-percentage-point swing in mortgage rates can alter monthly principal-and-interest payments by roughly $150 on a $400,000 loan. Because the Fed signaled no near-term cuts, lenders have priced that stability into rate sheets, and volatility has moderated compared with 2025.
| Month | 30-Yr Fixed | 10-Yr Treasury | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | 6.92% | 4.65% | 2.27 |
| May 2026 | 7.05% | 4.78% | 2.27 |
| Sep 2026 | 6.87% | 4.62% | 2.25 |
| Nov 5 2026 | 7.18% | 4.90% | 2.28 |
Data: FRED 2026-11-05. After three 2025 cuts, the average 30-year rate dipped to 6.87% in September 2026 before reversing course as inflation re-accelerated.
Markets with higher median prices feel rate changes most. In the San Francisco metro, Redfin data shows the median sale price at $1.32 million; a 50-basis-point rate rise adds about $440 to the monthly payment. In contrast, the Atlanta metro—median price $385,000—sees an increase of roughly $130. Homebuyers in either market can run live scenarios at HomeRates.ai to quantify exact impacts.
Futures markets assign less than a 15% probability to another hike by December 2026. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the 10-year yield to stay between 4.7% and 5.1%, keeping the 30-year mortgage in the 7.0%–7.3% corridor absent a growth shock. Persistent labor-market strength and sticky shelter inflation remain the key upside risks to yields.
With the Fed on hold and the 30-year fixed at 7.18%, borrowers face a stable but elevated rate environment. Locking today removes the risk of further upside surprises, while shoppers who can wait may see modest relief only if December inflation data undershoots expectations.
FRED data, market analysis, and refi alerts — weekly, no spam.
No spam. Unsubscribe any time.
See how today's rates affect your real numbers — run a live mortgage scenario instantly.
Run a Live Scenario →