Pending home sales 2026 fell 7.3% in September as high mortgage rates and tight inventory weighed on contract signings; NAR data and live FRED rates analyzed.
The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) reported that the Pending Home Sales Index fell 7.3% month-over-month in September 2026 and 11.3% year-over-year. The index now sits 30% below its 2019 pre-pandemic average, even though payroll employment is 5% higher, according to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. This divergence underscores a sizable pool of pent-up demand that remains on the sidelines.
As of October 22, 2026, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 7.32% and the 15-year fixed at 6.68% (FRED). The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.96%, producing a 2.36-percentage-point spread. Monthly principal-and-interest payments on a median-priced home now exceed $2,200 in most markets, keeping many would-be buyers on the fence.
Existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million units. Inventory climbed to 1.60 million homes, still well below the 2.0–2.5 million range considered balanced. Median prices increased 1.3% year-over-year, reflecting persistent supply constraints.
| Region | MoM Change | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Northeast | –4.2% | –8.9% |
| Midwest | –6.8% | –10.4% |
| South | –7.9% | –12.1% |
| West | –9.2% | –14.7% |
All four regions posted declines, with the West experiencing the steepest drop.
Redfin data shows pending sales down 12.7% year-over-year across the 50 largest metros. Every major market posted a decline, led by Austin (–19.4%), Phoenix (–17.8%), and Las Vegas (–16.2%). Even historically resilient coastal markets such as Boston and Seattle recorded double-digit drops.
Active listings have risen modestly from pandemic lows, but new inventory remains insufficient to offset buyer pullback. Sellers in 62% of tracked metros reduced asking prices in September, with the national median price cut reaching 2.1%. Despite these concessions, near-record monthly payments continue to limit purchase demand.
Pending home sales for October 2026 will be released by NAR on November 18 at 10 a.m. Eastern. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect another 1–3% decline, citing elevated rates and seasonal slowdowns. Readers can run live scenarios at HomeRates.ai to model how rate movements might affect affordability in their zip code.
Pending home sales 2026 remain constrained by mortgage rates above 7% and inventory well below balanced levels. Until either rates ease materially or new supply accelerates, contract signings are likely to stay subdued through year-end.
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