October 2026 housing affordability data shows NAR’s index at 103.3 and St. Louis Fed’s at 104.7, with 30-year rates at 7.32%.
The National Association of Realtors’ Housing Affordability Index (HAI) stood at 103.3 in July 2026, meaning a median-income household earned roughly 3 percent more than the income needed to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced existing home. The index has climbed from 98.3 one year earlier and from sub-100 averages recorded in 2023 and 2024. The St. Louis Fed’s Fixed-Rate Housing Affordability Index reached 104.7 in August 2026, up from 102.8 in July and 101.8 in June.
Live FRED data released 22 October 2026 show the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.32 percent, the 15-year fixed at 6.68 percent, and the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.96 percent, producing a 2.36 percent spread between the 30-year mortgage and the benchmark Treasury. These rates remain the dominant driver of monthly payment size and, therefore, of the affordability indexes.
The median existing-home price in March 2026 was $434,100. According to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Cost of Housing Index (CHI) for the first quarter of 2026, a household earning the national median income of $106,800 needed 32 percent of gross income to cover principal, interest, taxes, and insurance on a median-priced new home. That share is down slightly from 2023–2024 peaks but still exceeds the 25–28 percent range considered comfortable by most underwriting standards.
| Month (2026) | NAR HAI | St. Louis Fed HAI |
|---|---|---|
| May | 105.1 | 105.1 |
| June | 101.8 | 101.8 |
| July | 103.3 | 102.8 |
| August | — | 104.7 |
While national indexes sit just above the break-even line of 100, metropolitan data released by NAR show wide dispersion. Markets such as Pittsburgh and Cleveland remain above 120, indicating comfortable affordability, whereas San Diego, Los Angeles, and Miami continue to post readings below 80, meaning median-income households fall well short of qualifying for median-priced homes even at current rates.
NAR will release its next quarterly Metropolitan Median Area Prices and Affordability report on 29 October 2026. The St. Louis Fed’s September data are scheduled for 13 October 2026. Any sustained decline in the 30-year fixed rate below 7 percent would mechanically lift both indexes, but forward-looking rate futures priced on 22 October imply only modest relief through year-end.
As of late October 2026, housing affordability 2026 has improved modestly from pandemic-era lows but remains constrained for entry-level buyers. A median-income household can now just qualify for a median-priced home under current underwriting standards, yet high rates and elevated prices continue to limit purchasing power in many coastal markets. Readers can run live scenarios at HomeRates.ai to model how further rate changes would affect their own qualification metrics.
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