Pending home sales 2026 fell to a record low in September, down 7.3% MoM and 11.3% YoY, as 30-year mortgage rates held at 7.24%.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that the Pending Home Sales Index fell 7.3% month-over-month in September 2026 to 66.0, the lowest level on record. Year-over-year, the index declined 11.3%. NAR data show that signed contracts for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops dropped across all four regions, with the Midwest posting the steepest monthly decline of 9.1%.
HousingWire’s more timely weekly data corroborate the slowdown. For the week ending October 16, 2026, new pending single-family contracts totaled 51,947—down 13.1% from the same week in 2025.
Live FRED data as of October 29, 2026 show the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.24%, the 15-year fixed at 6.6%, and the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.94%, producing a 2.3-percentage-point spread. These rates remain near the highest levels since 2000, keeping monthly payments elevated and pushing marginal buyers out of the market.
| Metric | Value (Oct 29, 2026) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.24% | FRED |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.60% | FRED |
| 10-Year Treasury | 4.94% | FRED |
| Mortgage-Treasury Spread | 2.30 pp | FRED |
Existing-home sales for September 2026 came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million units, while active inventory rose to 1.60 million homes. Median sale prices increased 1.3% year-over-year. October 2026 existing-home sales figures are scheduled for release on November 12, 2026.
The NAR regional breakdown shows the West experiencing an 8.4% monthly drop in pending sales, followed by the South (-7.9%), Northeast (-5.8%), and Midwest (-9.1%). Year-over-year, the West posted the largest decline at 14.2%.
Because pending sales lead closings by 45–60 days, the September index points to continued softness in existing-home closings through November and December 2026. Analysts note that any meaningful rebound will require either a sustained decline in mortgage rates below 6.5% or a further increase in inventory to ease price competition.
Readers can run live scenarios at HomeRates.ai to model how changes in the 30-year rate would affect qualifying payment and debt-to-income ratios.
Pending home sales 2026 have reached their lowest level on record, reflecting both elevated mortgage rates and constrained inventory. Until rates fall or supply rises significantly, contract activity—and therefore closings—will likely remain subdued through year-end.
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