The 10-year Treasury mortgage rate spread stood at 226 basis points on October 29, 2026, well above the 170 bp historical average.
As of October 29, 2026, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.24 % while the 10-year Treasury yield sat at 4.98 %, producing a spread of 226 basis points (FRED). That gap remains materially wider than the 170-basis-point long-run average observed between 1990 and 2021.
The 10-year/2-year Treasury spread has narrowed sharply. The 2-year yield reached 4.77 % on October 15, 2026, leaving only 49 basis points between the 2-year and 10-year notes (4.26 %). A sub-50 bp curve has historically preceded slower economic growth, yet mortgage pricing has not compressed in tandem.
Lenders continue to price in credit, servicing, and prepayment risk that Treasuries do not carry. Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis shows the mortgage spread has averaged roughly 200 basis points since the 2022 tightening cycle began—about 30 bp above the pre-pandemic norm.
| Period | 30-yr Mortgage | 10-yr Treasury | Spread (bp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1990–2021 Average | — | — | 170 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 7.00 % | 5.00 % | 200 |
| Oct 29, 2026 (FRED) | 7.24 % | 4.98 % | 226 |
Rate sheets in high-cost states such as California and New York reflect the same 226 bp spread, while credit overlays in Texas and Florida add an extra 5–10 bp for jumbo balances. No metro has escaped the widening.
A 226 bp spread means that even if the 10-year yield falls 50 bp, the average 30-year rate would only decline to about 6.74 %—still above the 6.3 % level last seen in January 2026. Homeowners evaluating refinancing should model multiple spread scenarios rather than assuming parallel declines.
Readers can run live scenarios at HomeRates.ai to see how changes in the 10-year Treasury mortgage rate spread translate into monthly payments.
The 10-year Treasury mortgage rate spread of 226 basis points is 56 bp above the long-term average and shows no sign of rapid normalization. Until the spread compresses, mortgage rates will remain disproportionately high relative to Treasury yields.
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