Pending home sales rose 1.5% in March 2026 despite higher mortgage rates, signaling modest demand recovery amid 6.36% 30-year fixed rates.
Pending home sales increased 1.5% month-over-month in March 2026, reaching an index level of 73.7 according to the National Association of Realtors. This reading marks the highest level since November and comes despite 30-year fixed mortgage rates holding near 6.36% per FRED data as of May 14, 2026. Existing-home sales posted a matching 1.5% gain for the month.
The 30-year fixed rate stood at 6.36% on May 14, 2026, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.47% and a mortgage spread of 1.89%. These figures remain elevated compared to pre-2022 levels, yet buyers continued to sign contracts at a modest pace.
The March increase occurred against backdrop of rising gas prices tied to the Iran war. Contract signings rose 1.5% from February but remained down 1.1% year-over-year. The National Association of Realtors reported that the March value was an unexpected jump, suggesting buyers are adapting to higher rates.
National data hides regional differences. In the Midwest, pending sales climbed 2.3% month-over-month. In the West, the index rose 1.8% while the South posted a 1.2% increase. The Northeast recorded a 0.9% gain. Regional variation indicates local inventory conditions and job markets influence buyer behavior.
| Month | Index Level | MoM Change | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | 72.6 | +0.8% | -2.4% |
| March 2026 | 73.7 | +1.5% | -1.1% |
With 30-year fixed rates at 6.36% per FRED, buyers and sellers will continue to watch the 10-year Treasury yield closely. Readers can run live scenarios at HomeRates.ai to test how different rate paths affect monthly payments.
March data shows a modest rebound in pending home sales despite persistent high rates. The 1.5% monthly gain lifts the index to 73.7, its highest level since November, but the 1.1% year-over-year decline indicates ongoing weakness. 6.36% 30-year fixed rates remain a hurdle, but demand signals suggest buyers are slowly adapting.
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