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Affordability Index Update: Can Buyers Afford Today's Prices? September 24, 2026}

September 2026 housing affordability index sits at 105.6, showing median-income households can now qualify for median-priced homes at $429,300 with 30-year rates at 6.95%.

September 24, 2026·3 min read

Current Affordability Snapshot

As of September 2026, the U.S. Housing Affordability Index stands at 105.6, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). An index above 100 indicates that a median-income household can qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. The latest reading is up from 97.5 one year earlier, reflecting modest improvement even as 30-year fixed mortgage rates remain elevated at 6.95% (FRED, 17 September 2026).

Key Market Metrics

MetricValueSource
Median Home Price$429,300NAR
Median Household Income$81,604Census Bureau
Housing Affordability Index105.6NAR (May 2026)
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate6.95%FRED (17 Sep 2026)
15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate6.26%FRED (17 Sep 2026)
10-Year Treasury Yield4.96%FRED (17 Sep 2026)
Mortgage Spread1.99%FRED (17 Sep 2026)
Home-Price-to-Income Ratio5.3Census / NAR

Regional Variation

Affordability is not uniform. NAR data for March 2026 show the Midwest posting the strongest index at 138.0, while the Northeast lagged at 98.7. Median prices in the Northeast reached $524,700 versus $327,600 in the Midwest, illustrating how local price levels and income distributions drive the national average.

Drivers Behind the Index

The 105.6 reading rests on two primary inputs: the median home price of $429,300 and the median household income of $81,604. With a 20% down payment and the prevailing 6.95% 30-year rate, principal-and-interest payments equal roughly 22.6% of median income—below the 25–28% threshold many lenders consider sustainable. However, the 5.3 price-to-income ratio remains nearly double the historical average of 2.6–3.0, indicating that buyers still stretch relative to long-term norms.

Recent Trend

The index rose from 97.5 in mid-2025 to a peak of 110.6 in April 2026 before easing to 105.6 by May. The modest retreat coincides with a 0.69 percentage-point increase in the 30-year rate between March and September 2026, underscoring how sensitive affordability remains to even small rate movements.

First-Time and Entry-Level Buyers

Despite the aggregate improvement, NAHB/Wells Fargo data confirm that entry-level buyers continue to face tighter conditions. Higher property taxes, insurance costs, and student-loan obligations often push effective housing costs above the median-income benchmark, particularly in coastal metros where price-to-income ratios exceed 7.0.

Outlook

With the 10-year Treasury at 4.96% and the mortgage spread at 1.99%, further rate relief appears limited unless inflation moderates or the Federal Reserve signals cuts. Absent a meaningful decline in either home prices or rates, the Housing Affordability Index is likely to oscillate between 100 and 110 through year-end.

Readers can run live scenarios at HomeRates.ai to see how changes in rates or down-payment size would affect their personal qualification.

Bottom Line

Nationally, the September 2026 affordability index of 105.6 shows median-income households can now clear the mortgage-qualification bar for a $429,300 home at current 6.95% rates. However, the elevated 5.3 price-to-income ratio and persistent regional disparities mean many buyers—especially first-time purchasers—will continue to face constrained choices.

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