Mortgage rate forecast 2026 shows 30-year fixed rates averaging 6.4% in Q1 and easing to 6.0% by Q4, with live FRED data at 6.95% as of September 2026.
As of the week ending September 17, 2026, FRED data shows the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.95%, the 15-year fixed at 6.26%, and the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.01%, producing a spread of 1.94 percentage points. These figures sit above the consensus forecasts for the remainder of 2026, indicating that the market is pricing in a modest decline from current levels.
Four major institutions released updated projections in September 2026. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) sees the 30-year fixed rate at 6.4% in Q1, 6.2% in Q2, and 5.9% in Q4. Fannie Mae’s June 2026 Housing Forecast projects a steadier 6.4% for the balance of the year, while its October update lowered the year-end 2026 target to 5.9%. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is the most optimistic, calling for 6.3% in Q1, 6.0% in Q2, and 5.8% by Q4. Wells Fargo’s outlook is the most conservative, with a Q4 2026 forecast of 6.2%.
| Source | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q4 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mortgage Bankers Assoc. | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% |
| Fannie Mae | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% |
| NAR | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% |
| Wells Fargo | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% |
| Average Forecast | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% |
The spread between the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year mortgage rate remains elevated at 1.94 points, reflecting persistent inflation concerns and a resilient labor market. Bankrate analysts note that higher energy prices have added another layer of uncertainty, keeping Treasury yields from falling as quickly as previously expected. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey for the week ending August 6, 2026, reported a national 30-year fixed average of 6.69%, up from 6.66% the prior week, underscoring the week-to-week volatility that can persist even when the broader trend is downward.
While national averages dominate headlines, actual pricing varies by state. Redfin data shows that borrowers in high-cost states such as California and New York are currently seeing 30-year fixed quotes 0.15–0.25 percentage points above the national average, while lower-cost states like Ohio and Texas are tracking 0.10–0.15 points below. These differentials are expected to compress as overall rates decline, but they remain relevant for buyers locking in September 2026.
Key indicators to monitor include the monthly Consumer Price Index, weekly initial jobless claims, and any revisions to the Federal Reserve’s dot plot. A single hotter-than-expected inflation print could push the 10-year Treasury back above 5.10% and stall the projected decline. Conversely, continued cooling in wage growth would support the consensus path toward a 6.0% average by year-end.
The mortgage rate forecast 2026 points to a gradual decline from today’s 6.95% 30-year fixed rate toward a 6.0% average by December, according to the blended outlook of MBA, Fannie Mae, NAR, and Wells Fargo. Borrowers can run live scenarios at HomeRates.ai to see how different rate paths would affect monthly payments and refinancing thresholds.
FRED data, market analysis, and refi alerts — weekly, no spam.
No spam. Unsubscribe any time.
See how today's rates affect your real numbers — run a live mortgage scenario instantly.
Run a Live Scenario →