Latest 10-year Treasury mortgage rate spread data shows a 1.87% gap as of late August 2026, with 30-year fixed rates at 6.66% and the 10-year Treasury at 4.79%.
As of the most recent FRED reading (August 27, 2026), the 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.66 percent while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.79 percent, producing a spread of 1.87 percentage points. The 15-year fixed rate was 5.98 percent on the same date. These figures place the spread near the middle of the long-term historical range of 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent that lenders have typically required to compensate for credit, prepayment, and liquidity risk.
Since the end of the Great Recession, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has averaged roughly 1.7 percentage points above the 10-year Treasury. Between 1995 and 2005, the secondary spread—the difference between mortgage-backed security yields and the 10-year Treasury—averaged 1.17 percentage points and was notably volatile. The current 1.87-point gap is therefore wider than the pre-crisis secondary spread but narrower than the 2.0-point-plus levels observed during the 2022–2023 rate spike.
Treasury rates have been stable over the past year, with the 10-year yield holding just below 4.2 percent for most of the past month. Forecasts for 2026 anticipate that the benchmark will remain inside a narrow trading band, limiting one source of spread volatility. At the same time, mortgage-to-Treasury spreads have compressed as MBS investors accept modestly lower compensation for prepayment and credit risk. Analysts project the 10-year Treasury–mortgage spread will average around 1.8 percentage points (180 basis points) through the remainder of 2026, keeping 30-year fixed rates below 6 percent if Treasury yields do not rise sharply.
Data covering the last three decades show that the spread has exceeded 200 basis points roughly 21 percent of the time. Those episodes typically coincide with elevated interest-rate volatility or regulatory shocks. Conversely, when volatility subsides and MBS liquidity remains ample, the spread can compress toward 150 basis points. The current 187-basis-point reading sits comfortably inside the central tendency and suggests lenders are neither aggressively tightening credit nor engaging in a price war.
While the national 30-year fixed average is 6.66 percent, borrowers in lower-cost states often see modestly tighter spreads. In Texas and Florida, for example, competitive retail pricing has recently produced 30-year quotes 8–12 basis points below the national average, narrowing the implied Treasury spread to about 1.75 percentage points. In contrast, high-cost coastal markets such as California and New York continue to price 10–15 basis points above the national figure, pushing the local spread closer to 2.0 percentage points.
A stable 1.87-point spread implies that further declines in mortgage rates will depend primarily on movement in the 10-year Treasury. If the Treasury yield remains near 4.2–4.3 percent, the 30-year fixed rate is likely to stay in the 6.0–6.3 percent corridor through year-end. Conversely, any sustained rise in the 10-year yield above 4.5 percent would push mortgage rates back above 6.5 percent even if the spread holds constant.
| Date | 30-Yr Fixed | 10-Yr Treasury | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | 6.66% | 4.79% | 1.87% |
| 2025-12-31 | 6.41% | 4.51% | 1.90% |
| 2025-06-30 | 6.89% | 4.72% | 2.17% |
The latest 10-year Treasury mortgage rate spread of 1.87 percentage points is within historical norms and consistent with forecasts that mortgage rates will remain below 6 percent for the balance of 2026. Home buyers and refinancers can run live scenarios at HomeRates.ai to see how small changes in the spread or Treasury yield would affect monthly payments.
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