The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.95% while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.76%, producing a 1.81% spread as of September 13, 2026.
As of the September 10, 2026 FRED release, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.76%, the 15-year fixed 6.09%, and the 10-year Treasury yield 4.95%. The resulting spread of 1.81 percentage points remains elevated compared with the long-run average of roughly 1.58 points.
Over the past decade the 30-year mortgage has averaged 58 basis points above the 10-year Treasury; the current 181-basis-point gap is nearly triple that baseline. The spread widened sharply after the 2022 rate-hike cycle and has only partially retraced. According to MBA Newslink, Treasury yields have been remarkably stable near 4.2% over the past month, yet mortgage pricing has not followed suit.
The spread compensates investors for prepayment, credit, and liquidity risks embedded in mortgage-backed securities. Recent investor commentary cited by Fannie Mae indicates that uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s terminal rate—now expected to settle between 3.5% and 4.0% by year-end 2026—has kept MBS risk premiums elevated. When the Fed signaled a slower pace of easing, implied volatility in the MBS market rose, pushing required spreads wider.
The consensus forecast calls for the 10-year Treasury to trade in a narrow band around 4.0–4.3% through 2026. If the Fed pauses or begins measured cuts, MBS volatility should decline and the spread is projected to compress toward 150–160 basis points. That compression would translate into a 30-year mortgage rate near 5.6–5.9%, assuming the 10-year yield holds steady.
Rate sheets remain largely uniform nationwide, but small differences appear in states with higher foreclosure timelines. In California and New York, average 30-year quotes sit 4–6 basis points above the national 6.76% print, while Texas and Florida quotes are 2–3 basis points below, reflecting faster foreclosure processes and lower carrying costs for servicers.
| Date | 30-Yr Fixed | 10-Yr Treasury | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | 6.54% | 4.12% | 2.42% |
| 2026-03-13 | 6.81% | 4.67% | 2.14% |
| 2026-06-13 | 6.92% | 4.88% | 2.04% |
| 2026-09-10 | 6.76% | 4.95% | 1.81% |
Source: FRED, Board of Governors H.15 Selected Interest Rates, 2026-09-10 release.
A sustained 1.81-percentage-point spread means a borrower paying 6.76% is effectively compensating investors for 181 basis points of non-Treasury risk. If the spread narrows by 30 basis points over the next six months, the same borrower refinancing a $400,000 loan would save roughly $80 per month. HomeRates.ai allows users to run live scenarios with updated rate sheets to quantify these savings under different spread assumptions.
The 10-year Treasury mortgage rate spread stands at 1.81 percentage points—well above its long-term mean. Unless MBS volatility declines, mortgage rates are unlikely to fall below 6.25% even if the 10-year yield remains anchored near 4.0%. Monitor weekly FRED updates; any sustained move below 1.60% would signal a durable improvement in borrower pricing.
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