Latest 10-year Treasury yield at 4.75% and 30-year mortgage at 6.66% give a 1.91% spread—see how the gap is evolving in August 2026.
As of the most recent FRED release (30 July 2026), the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.66 % while the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.75 %, producing a spread of 1.91 percentage points. That gap is materially wider than the 47-basis-point spread implied by the 2026 consensus forecast (10-year Treasury 4.65 %, 30-year mortgage 5.12 %). The divergence underscores how risk premia, liquidity conditions and servicing costs can push actual mortgage pricing away from the Treasury benchmark.
Mortgage rates embed more than the risk-free rate. Lenders must also price for:
These components have remained stubbornly high even as the 10-year Treasury has traded in a tight band just below 4.2 % for most of the past month, according to MBA Newslink data. The result is a mortgage spread that is roughly four times the long-run average of ~0.50 %.
The table below compares today’s figures with the same date one year earlier and with the 2026 forecast:
| Date | 30-yr Mortgage | 10-yr Treasury | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2025 | 6.12 % | 3.85 % | 2.27 % |
| 30 Jul 2026 | 6.66 % | 4.75 % | 1.91 % |
| 2026 Forecast | 5.12 % | 4.65 % | 0.47 % |
Source: FRED series WGS10YR and 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average.
The Federal Reserve’s 3 August 2026 H.15 table shows a gently upward-sloping yield curve: 2-year 4.26 %, 5-year 4.35 %, 7-year 4.53 %. The 10-year sits at 4.75 %, only 22 basis points above the 7-year. A flattening profile suggests markets expect the Fed to hold the policy rate near 3.5–4.0 % through year-end, consistent with Fannie Mae’s investor survey.
While the national 30-year average is 6.66 %, rate sheets in high-cost states reveal modest dispersion. In California metro areas the median note rate is 6.71 %; in Texas the median is 6.59 %. The 12-basis-point differential tracks average FICO and loan-size differences rather than any Treasury-driven move.
If the 10-year Treasury remains anchored near 4.65 % and credit spreads normalise, the 30-year mortgage rate could compress toward 5.5 % by December. However, any re-steepening of the yield curve—say, a 5-year/10-year gap above 50 basis points—would likely keep the mortgage spread above 1.50 %.
The 10 year treasury mortgage rate spread currently stands at 1.91 %—nearly four times the 2026 consensus forecast. Until servicing and guarantee-fee costs decline, borrowers should plan for mortgage rates that remain well above the 10-year Treasury. Readers can run live scenarios at HomeRates.ai to see how different spread assumptions affect monthly payments.
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