Pending home sales fell in July 2026 as 30-year mortgage rates held at 6.71%, signaling continued cooling in the housing market.
The National Association of REALTORS® reported that the Pending Home Sales Index fell in July 2026, reaching its lowest level since January. The decline follows several months of elevated mortgage rates that have remained above 6.5%. According to NAR, the slip in contract signings reflects both the high cost of financing and a softening labor market.
Live data from FRED as of September 3, 2026 shows the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.71%, the 15-year fixed at 5.98%, and the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.79%, producing a 1.92% spread. These levels have remained largely unchanged since late spring, keeping monthly payments elevated and limiting buyer purchasing power.
Existing-home sales data released August 11, 2026 showed a 1.7% month-over-month decline in July. The national median sales price rose to $431,400, while months’ supply held steady at 4.6. Inventory remains tight relative to pre-pandemic norms, yet the combination of higher rates and limited selection continues to weigh on transaction volume.
Redfin data shows that during the last week of March 2026 there were 70,676 new pending home sales, up from 69,183 a year earlier. By mid-April, the weekly figure reached 73,241 versus 71,775 in 2025. Despite these year-over-year gains earlier in the spring, the July national index reversed course, indicating that any momentum faded as rates stayed elevated.
| Period | Pending Home Sales Index Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | +3.8% MoM / +4.8% YoY | NAR reported modest rebound |
| July 2026 | Lowest since January 2026 | Attributed to 6.5–6.7% mortgage rates |
The May rebound proved short-lived. Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist, noted that rates between 6.5% and 6.7% combined with a cooling job market have kept many prospective buyers on the sidelines.
Inventory has not expanded enough to offset affordability constraints. With mortgage rates anchored near 6.71%, the carrying cost of a median-priced home remains above levels seen in 2023–2024. Sellers who locked in sub-4% mortgages continue to resist listing, further limiting choices for new buyers.
Pending Home Sales for August 2026 will be released Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 10 a.m. Eastern. The next Existing-Home Sales report is scheduled on or near September 20. Market participants will watch these releases for signs of stabilization or further softening.
Pending home sales 2026 have retreated under the weight of 6.71% 30-year rates and subdued inventory. Until mortgage costs decline meaningfully or sellers release more listings, contract volume is likely to remain subdued. Readers can run live scenarios at HomeRates.ai to model how rate movements would affect monthly payments in their target markets.
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