Pending home sales fell in July 2026 while existing-home sales hit 3.98 million in August; high rates and thin supply continue to weigh on 2026 demand.
Pending home sales retreated in July 2026 to their lowest reading since January, according to the National Association of Realtors. The decline aligns with mortgage rates that remained between 6.5% and 6.7% for several consecutive months and a labor market that has cooled from its post-pandemic peak. Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist, noted that pending contracts are now 30% below their 2019 pre-pandemic level, even as payroll employment sits 5% above that benchmark, underscoring a sizable gap between current demand and underlying demographic need.
Existing-home sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million units in August 2026, NAR reported on September 10. Inventory climbed to 1.62 million homes, a modest gain that still leaves supply well below the six-month benchmark considered necessary for balanced conditions. Median existing-home prices rose 1.6% year-over-year, indicating that price growth has slowed but remains positive.
HousingWire data show that the last week of March 2026 recorded 70,676 new pending sales, up from 69,183 the same week in 2025. By the week ending April 16, new contracts reached 73,241 versus 71,775 a year earlier. While these week-to-week gains are encouraging, they have not yet translated into a sustained monthly uptrend, and the July pullback erased much of the spring momentum.
FRED data confirm that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.62% in the four weeks ending September 11, 2026, remaining within the 6.5%–6.7% corridor cited by NAR. Rate volatility has been limited, but the level continues to price out marginal buyers and compress affordability ratios in high-cost metros.
| Metro Area | Inventory (Aug 2026) | YoY Price Change | Months’ Supply |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin, TX | 11,800 | +0.9% | 3.1 |
| Phoenix, AZ | 14,200 | +1.4% | 2.8 |
| Charlotte, NC | 9,400 | +2.1% | 2.4 |
| Riverside, CA | 7,900 | +0.7% | 3.4 |
The table above illustrates that even Sun Belt markets with historically strong demand are operating with fewer than four months of supply, keeping upward pressure on prices despite softer contract activity.
Yun emphasized that the 30% shortfall in pending contracts relative to 2019 levels points to “sizable pent-up demand” that should surface once mortgage rates moderate and new construction increases. Builders are adding single-family units at a faster clip than multifamily, yet total completions remain below the 1.5 million annual pace needed to restore equilibrium.
The next Pending Home Sales Index release, covering August 2026 activity, is scheduled for Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 10 a.m. Eastern. Market participants will watch for any rebound that could confirm a bottom or signal further softening ahead of the fall selling season.
Pending home sales 2026 remain constrained by mortgage rates near 6.6% and limited inventory, with July marking the weakest reading since January. Existing-home sales of 3.98 million and a 1.6% price increase show resilience, but the 30% gap versus 2019 pending levels suggests demand is waiting on better affordability. Readers can run live scenarios at HomeRates.ai to model how incremental rate changes would affect qualification and monthly payment in their target markets.
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