Housing Market

Pending Home Sales & Demand Signals — July 26, 2026}

June 2026 pending home sales fell across all regions as 30-year mortgage rates held at 6.58% and existing-home sales dropped 2.4%, per NAR.

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June 2026 Pending Home Sales Decline

Pending home sales fell in June 2026, with month-over-month declines recorded in every major U.S. region. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that the Pending Home Sales Index (PHS) continued to reflect the housing market’s sensitivity to mortgage rates and broader economic conditions.

Mortgage Rates and Treasury Spreads

Live data from FRED as of July 23, 2026 show the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.58 percent, the 15-year fixed at 5.96 percent, and the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.71 percent, producing a spread of 1.87 percent. These levels remain elevated compared with pre-pandemic averages and continue to influence buyer affordability.

Existing-Home Sales Context

Existing-home sales decreased 2.4 percent in June 2026. Regionally, sales rose in the Northeast but declined in the Midwest, South, and West. Year-over-year figures showed gains in the Midwest, South, and West, while the Northeast remained flat. NAR notes that the back-and-forth in monthly sales underscores the market’s ongoing responsiveness to interest-rate movements.

Regional Performance Snapshot

RegionJune 2026 MoM ChangeJune 2026 YoY Change
NortheastDeclineFlat
MidwestDeclineIncrease
SouthDeclineIncrease
WestDeclineIncrease

Earlier 2026 Trends

Earlier in the year, pending home sales rose 1.5 percent in March 2026 to an index level of 73.7, despite higher mortgage rates and elevated gas prices linked to geopolitical developments. That monthly gain was accompanied by a 1.1 percent year-over-year decline. HousingWire data indicated 70,676 new pending sales in the final week of March 2026, compared with 69,183 in the same week of 2025.

Market Implications

The June pullback follows a period of mixed signals. While March’s increase suggested some resilience, sustained mortgage rates near 6.58 percent and ongoing economic uncertainty have weighed on contract signings. NAR’s next release, covering June 2026 pending home sales, is scheduled for Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 10 a.m. Eastern.

Bottom Line

Pending home sales 2026 remain constrained by elevated borrowing costs, with the latest NAR data showing broad regional declines. Homebuyers evaluating affordability can run live scenarios at HomeRates.ai to model payments under current 30-year fixed rates of 6.58 percent and compare alternatives across loan types.

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