June 2026 pending home sales fell 5.4% month-over-month, yet NAR forecasts a 14% rise in existing-home sales for the year amid 6.66% 30-year mortgage rates.
According to the National Association of REALTORS®, the Pending Home Sales Index declined 5.4% month-over-month and 0.3% year-over-year in June 2026. The index, which tracks signed contracts for existing single-family homes and condos, serves as a leading indicator for closings one to two months ahead.
June existing-home sales reached 4.09 million on an annualized basis, up 3.2% both month-over-month and year-over-year. The national median sales price stood at $440,600, while inventory remained tight at 4.6 months of supply.
Live data from FRED as of July 30, 2026 show the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.66%, the 15-year fixed at 6.04%, and the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.7%, producing a mortgage spread of 1.96%. Elevated financing costs continue to weigh on contract signings despite stable buyer demand.
While national data mask local variation, markets such as Austin, Texas and Phoenix, Arizona recorded the steepest June declines in pending sales, each down more than 8% month-over-month. Conversely, Raleigh, North Carolina and Nashville, Tennessee posted modest gains of 1.8% and 2.1%, respectively, supported by stronger job growth in technology and healthcare.
| Metric | June 2026 | Change vs. Prior Month |
|---|---|---|
| Existing-Home Sales | 4.09 M | +3.2% |
| Median Sales Price | $440,600 | +1.1% |
| Months of Supply | 4.6 | –0.2 |
| Pending Home Sales Index | 71.4 | –5.4% |
NAR projects a 14% increase in existing-home sales for the full year 2026, citing pent-up demand and gradual inventory gains. The forecast assumes mortgage rates will remain near current levels through year-end.
Despite the June dip in pending contracts, buyer search activity on major portals has held steady, suggesting that affordability constraints—not lack of interest—are the primary drag. Redfin data show the share of buyers waiving contingencies has fallen to 12%, down from 19% a year earlier, indicating a more cautious stance.
With the 30-year fixed rate at 6.66%, monthly principal-and-interest payments on a median-priced home exceed $2,800 before taxes and insurance. Prospective buyers can run live scenarios at HomeRates.ai to model the impact of rate movements or down-payment changes on monthly housing costs.
Pending home sales fell in June, but the broader 2026 outlook remains positive: NAR’s 14% sales-growth forecast and slowly expanding inventory point to a gradual market recovery, provided mortgage rates do not climb further from the current 6.66% 30-year fixed level.
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