July 2026 pending home sales fell 2.3% as 30-year mortgage rates held at 6.65%, signaling continued demand weakness heading into August.
Pending home sales fell 2.3% in July 2026, marking the lowest reading since January, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The decline follows a 1.7% drop in existing-home sales and reflects the persistent impact of elevated mortgage rates on buyer demand.
Live data from FRED as of August 20, 2026, show the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.65%, the 15-year fixed at 5.95%, and the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.74%, producing a 1.91% spread. These levels have remained within the 6.5%–6.7% band for several months, keeping monthly payments elevated and sidelining marginal buyers.
The Pending Home Sales Index, which tracks signed contracts, declined across all four major regions in July. February 2026 had posted a modest 1.8% month-over-month gain, but that momentum faded as rates stayed high and the job market cooled. Year-over-year, pending sales are now 0.8% below February 2025 levels.
| Metric | July 2026 Value | Change vs Prior Month |
|---|---|---|
| Existing-Home Sales | — | –1.7% |
| Pending Home Sales Index | — | –2.3% |
| Median Sales Price | $431,400 | +$4,200 |
| Months’ Supply of Inventory | 4.6 | Steady |
The median existing-home price reached $431,400, up from $427,200 in June. Inventory remained at a 4.6-month supply, still below the 5.0–6.0-month range considered balanced.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun cited high mortgage rates and a softening labor market as primary headwinds. Although existing-home sales beat some forecasts with a 3.2% year-over-year increase, the forward-looking pending sales data suggest that momentum may stall heading into the fall.
Pending Home Sales for August 2026 will be released September 10 at 10 a.m. ET. Market participants will watch whether the 2.3% July decline extends or stabilizes if rates ease. Readers can run live scenarios at HomeRates.ai to model payment changes under different rate paths.
With 30-year rates locked at 6.65% and pending home sales at their lowest level since January 2026, the near-term trajectory for contract activity remains downward unless mortgage rates fall meaningfully or inventory rises enough to improve affordability.
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