Home prices 2026 are holding steady despite 6.66% 30-year rates; see the latest FRED data and city-level trends for August 29.
As of August 29, 2026, the national median existing-home price sits at $416,900, up 3.4% year-over-year according to the latest NAR release. New-home prices, tracked by the Census Bureau, reached $416,700, essentially flat from July. These figures mark the slowest annual gain since late 2023, suggesting the market is absorbing the impact of the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.66% (FRED, 2026-08-27).
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.67% on August 27, producing a 1.99-percentage-point spread over the 30-year mortgage rate. That spread remains near its five-year average, indicating lenders are not adding extra risk premia. The 15-year fixed rate of 5.98% offers a 68-basis-point discount versus the 30-year, yet refinancing volume has stayed muted because most households locked in sub-4% loans during 2020-2021.
Redfin data shows San Francisco metro prices slipped 1.2% from a year ago to $1,185,000, while Austin posted a 4.8% decline to $512,000. In contrast, Raleigh and Charlotte posted gains of 5.9% and 5.1%, respectively, as employers continue to expand in the Southeast. Midwest markets such as Indianapolis and Columbus remain under $300,000, with annual appreciation between 3% and 4%.
Active listings rose 14% year-over-year, the largest August increase since 2019. Months’ supply climbed to 4.2, still below the six-month equilibrium but enough to give buyers marginally more negotiating room. Existing-home sales fell 2.1% month-over-month, the fourth consecutive decline, as higher rates and elevated prices keep affordability stretched.
| Market | Median Price | YoY Change | Inventory (months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| National | $416,900 | +3.4% | 4.2 |
| San Francisco | $1,185,000 | -1.2% | 3.8 |
| Austin | $512,000 | -4.8% | 5.1 |
| Raleigh | $465,000 | +5.9% | 3.5 |
| Indianapolis | $295,000 | +3.7% | 3.9 |
The FOMC’s July 2026 dot plot projected two additional 25-basis-point cuts by year-end. If realized, the 30-year rate could drift toward 6.3%–6.4%, providing modest payment relief. However, the same projections show the 10-year Treasury remaining above 4.4%, limiting how far mortgage rates can fall. NAR’s latest forecast calls for a 1.9% price increase nationally in 2026, down from 3.4% this year.
Home prices 2026 have decelerated but remain positive; buyers who can qualify at today’s 6.66% 30-year rate should run live scenarios at HomeRates.ai to quantify payment sensitivity under different rate and price assumptions.
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