October 2026 affordability data shows the national index at 104.7, yet price-to-income ratios near historic highs—see what it means for buyers.
The National Association of REALTORS® Housing Affordability Index (Fixed Rate) stood at 104.7 for August 2026, up from 102.8 in July and 101.8 in June. A reading above 100 indicates that a median-income household has sufficient income to qualify for a median-priced home with a 20 percent down payment and prevailing underwriting standards.
Live FRED data as of 8 October 2026 place the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.4 percent and the 15-year fixed at 6.73 percent. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 5.24 percent, producing a mortgage spread of 2.16 percentage points. At these levels, a $400,000 loan carries a principal-and-interest payment of roughly $2,780 per month—about 36 percent of the median U.S. household income.
Despite the index reading above 100, the Joint Center for Housing Studies reports that national median home prices have climbed to five times median household income, matching levels last seen before the 2008 downturn. In several coastal markets the ratio exceeds twelve times income, underscoring the uneven geography of affordability.
California’s second-quarter 2026 Housing Affordability Tracker shows that the income required to qualify for a median-tier home rose another 4 percent year-over-year, even as prices stabilized. In the San Francisco Bay Area, the price-to-income ratio reached 13.4; in Los Angeles it stands at 11.7. By contrast, Midwest metros such as Indianapolis (3.8) and Kansas City (3.5) remain near long-term norms.
| Month (2026) | Affordability Index |
|---|---|
| April | 108.0 |
| May | 105.1 |
| June | 101.8 |
| July | 102.8 |
| August | 104.7 |
The index dipped below 105 only once in the past five months, suggesting modest improvement but no decisive turnaround.
NAR’s next monthly release, scheduled for 13 October 2026, will incorporate September rate and price data. The quarterly metropolitan release on 29 October will provide updated price-to-income ratios for 183 metro areas. Analysts expect the national index to remain between 103 and 106 unless mortgage rates fall below 7 percent.
Nationally, today’s buyers with median incomes can still qualify for median homes, yet price-to-income ratios at five-to-one—and double that in high-cost states—mean many households must stretch or relocate. Users can run live scenarios at HomeRates.ai to test how changes in rates, down payments, or target price alter qualification outcomes.
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